India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall from August to September, further boosting kharif sowing and supporting the broader economy.
“The rainfall averaged over the entire country from August to September is likely to be above normal (more than 106% of the long period average or LPA),” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), during a virtual press conference on Thursday.
Based on historical data from 1971 to 2020, the LPA for the August to September period is 422.8 mm.
According to IMD, during the second half of the monsoon season, normal to above-normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country. However, many parts of northeast and adjoining areas of east India, isolated regions of central India and southwestern parts of peninsular India may see below-normal rain, said IMD.
Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System and other climate model forecasts indicate that the neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue during the remaining part of the monsoon season.
ENSO refers to changes in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure, which influence monsoon behaviour.
In August,averagerainfall across the country is likely to be within the normal range (94% to 106% of the LPA). While normal to above normal rainfall is very likely over many parts of the country, central India, western parts of peninsular India, northeast India and some parts of east and northwest India are likely to receive below normal rains, according to IMD.
India received 474.3 mm of rainfall from 1 June to 31 July, exceeding the normal average of 445.8 mm for the period. Most of northwest and Central India recorded above-normal rainfall during the period, while parts of the east and Northeast received below-normal precipitation. The South Peninsula also recorded slightly below-normal rainfall.
Meanwhile, favourable monsoon conditions have already begun to reflect in agricultural activity, as kharif sowing has been completed in over 76% of the normal area. As of 27 July,total acreage under all kharif crops stood at 83 million hectares, up 4% from 80 million hectares a year earlier, according to agriculture ministry data.
Paddy, the main food grain sown during the kharif season, has seen an over 13% surge in acreage to 24.5 million hectares. Pulses’ acreage rose over 3.5% to 9.3 million hectares, while coarse cereals were planted across 16 million hectares, up 3.7% from 15.5 million hectares a year ago.
A strong monsoon supports ahealthy crop output and also leads to low electricity consumption. That bodes well for agriculture and water resources.
“This anticipated rainfall forecast indicates restoration of surface water bodies—such as rivers, lakes and ponds—enhancing immediate availability for drinking, agriculture, and industrial needs. Moreover, widespread and timely monsoon showers aid in increasing groundwater levels, addressing the ongoing issue of declining water tables in multiple regions,” said Poonam Sewak, VP programs and partnerships, Safe Water Network. The organization works with the private and public sectors to provideclean and safe drinking water, besides the rejuvenation of water bodies.