Analysis: What awaits PM Modi at SCO Summit?

Even without the overhang of the rift with the U.S., Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Tianjin for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit is replete with symbolism, some awkward encounters and many significant firsts.

This is his first trip to China in seven years, the first bilateral with President Xi Jinping — not in a third country — since the Galwan clashes and the standoff at the Line of Actual Control, and his first meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin since the U.S.’s 50% tariffs, including the penalty for importing Russian oil, kicked in.

Mr. Modi will come face to face with Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif for the first time since the Pahalgam terror attacks and Operation Sindoor. This will be his first in-person attendance at the SCO Summit in three years, a grouping that he appeared to have put on the backburner since his last appearance at the Samarkand Summit in 2022. In 2023, India hosted the SCO, but the summit was held online, while in 2024, Mr. Modi skipped the summit in Kazakhstan.

However, it will be his photo-ops with the leaders of China, Russia, Iran, Belarus, and Central Asian states — in a grouping seen as “anti-West” — which will make the most international headlines, given the India-U.S. standoff over trade. Rhetoric between New Delhi and Washington has grown louder over the past week after the U.S. imposed its first sanctions on India in 27 years, over the issue of buying Russian oil, which led to the White House Trade Advisor terming the Ukraine conflict “Modi’s war” and calling India an “oil money laundromat” for Moscow.

Commerce and Industries Minister Piyush Goyal retorted that India “will neither bow nor appear weak”, indicating that India would not stop its oil imports from Russia despite the U.S. pressure. As a result, the statements made at the SCO summit on Monday will be closely watched, especially after both China and Russia have slammed the U.S.’s move to impose tariffs on India, and Mr. Trump’s critics have accused the U.S. administration of pushing India into the Chinese corner.

The timing of Mr. Modi’s meeting with Mr. Xi on Sunday at noon was not originally linked to the U.S.’s moves, but to the “normalisation process” kicked off by the two leaders when they met in Kazan in October 2024. Since then, the two sides have completed “disengagement” at the LAC, although they have yet to see a demobilisation of the roughly 50,000 troops on each side of the boundary. Delhi and Beijing have also agreed on restarting direct flights, sharing hydrological data, begun issuing visas, resumed the Kailash Manasarovar Yatra, and border trade.

The Xi-Modi meeting will set the course for future initiatives, particularly on India’s concerns over Chinese export restrictions on critical minerals being lifted, and China’s demand for India to scrap its restrictions on FDI via a circular issued in 2020 called “Press Note 3”.

Mr. Modi’s talks with Mr. Putin to be held on Monday will focus on the U.S.’s actions, the Ukraine peace process as well setting the stage for the Russian President’s visit to Delhi in December for the annual summit, his first such visit since the Ukraine conflict began. 

At the SCO Summit, Mr. Modi is expected to raise the issue of terrorism, as India is pushing for stronger references to countering “cross-border terrorism” which were dropped in the Astana declaration last year, but had been included in the Delhi declaration of 2023 as the “cross-border movement of terrorists”. The SCO grouping has often seen heated exchanges between India and Pakistan since they both became members in 2017, and both Mr. Modi and Mr. Sharif are expected to make strong references to the four-day military conflict in May this year.

Another possibly awkward encounter would be with Turkish President Erdogan, given India’s restrictions on Turkish businesses and airline companies due to Turkey’s support to Pakistan. The leaders of other neighbouring countries: Nepal, Myanmar and Maldives will be present as observers as well. Any meeting between Mr. Modi and Nepali Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli will be watched with interest given the latest spat between Delhi and Kathmandu over the reopening of the India-China border trade at Lipulekh, which Nepal claims violates its sovereignty. 

Officials say given the membership of the SCO and presence of Indonesian and Malaysian leaders, the joint statement may include the strongest language yet on Israel’s war on Gaza, where more than 62,000 Palestinians have been killed and starvation deaths are rising, that India may have to sign.