A new YouGov MRP poll suggests Reform UK could become the largest party in the UK Parliament with 271 seats if a general election were held tomorrow—marking a staggering surge from the five seats it currently holds.
However, Nigel Farage’s party would still fall short of the 326-seat threshold required for an outright majority, likely forcing the party to govern as a minority administration or seek informal alliances to pass key legislation.
Labour collapse, Tory wipeout
The Labour Party is projected to suffer major losses, dropping from 403 seats to just 178. Several high-profile cabinet ministers including Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper, Bridget Phillipson, Jonathan Reynolds, Lisa Nandy, John Healey, and Pat McFadden are forecast to lose their seats.
The Conservative Party faces an even more dramatic collapse, plummeting to just 46 seats, potentially marking its worst result in modern history.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are projected to climb to 81 seats, positioning themselves as a major player in the new Parliament. The Scottish National Party (SNP) would return as the dominant force in Scotland with 38 seats, while the Greens and Plaid Cymru are each forecast to win seven.
The seat-by-seat MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) model used in the poll is considered. YouGov analysts said the central projection indicates that no realistic two-party combination would secure a majority in the House of Commons.